California, long the national leader in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, is experiencing a slowdown in sales growth – while surprising surges are happening in states without aggressive EV mandates. This shift suggests that consumer demand, not just policy, is increasingly driving the EV transition.
California’s Plateauing Market
For the first nine months of 2025, EV sales in California dipped by 1.4% compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 302,000 units sold. This is the first decline since the pandemic recovery. The end of the $7,500 federal tax credit in September likely exacerbated this trend, making EVs less financially attractive for some buyers. Despite the slowdown, California still leads with EVs representing 21% of new vehicle sales, exceeding figures in other progressive states like the District of Columbia (19%) and Colorado (19%).
The Rise of ZEV States
States with Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates—those requiring automakers to sell a certain percentage of EVs—are seeing steady gains. New York’s EV sales rose 21.1%, while Colorado jumped by 30.1%. On average, ZEV states now account for 13% of new car sales, compared to just 6% in non-ZEV states. This difference underscores the impact of policy-driven adoption.
The Unexpected Surge in Non-ZEV States
The most striking development is the rapid growth in states without strong EV incentives. Florida saw a massive 33% increase, reaching 109,000 EV sales (9% of new cars). Texas rose by 16.7% to 77,000 units, while Illinois jumped 36.2% to 32,000. Michigan led with a dramatic 90.7% increase, selling 31,000 EVs. This suggests that consumer interest is expanding beyond politically progressive regions.
“The rapid uptake in EV sales in Michigan shows why growth in traditionally non-ZEV states is a valuable opportunity for domestic brands,” notes JATO Dynamics analyst Anthony Puhl. This highlights that brand recognition and consumer preference matter more than policy in some markets.
Infrastructure Remains a Key Obstacle
A major barrier to further EV adoption in non-ZEV states remains charging infrastructure. ZEV states offer roughly one public charging point for every 880 people, while non-ZEV states lag behind with one for every 2,216. This disparity underscores the need for investment in charging networks to support wider EV adoption.
The data suggests that the EV market is evolving beyond early adopters and policy-driven incentives. Consumer demand, particularly in unexpected regions, is now playing a larger role. Closing the charging infrastructure gap will be crucial for sustaining this growth.
